Study on the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy

Study on the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy CHAPTER 1: A number of researches have been carried on the prediction of bankruptcy; formal studies linked with failure of business were conducted in 1930s. A study conducted by Simth and Winakor (1935) said that ratios of the failing firms were significantly changed from the continuing firms. In addition to that another study was related to the financial ratio of large size corporation that suffered in meeting fixed liability (Hickman 1958). Recent studies took potential ratios given in annual financial statements like profitability, solvency, and liquidity ratios considered as the most predictive indicator and these ratios were matched with failed and well worth firms for analysis. A group of financial and economic ratios were examined in the prediction of bankruptcy through multiple discriminant statistical technique, highest contributor ratios were profitability, operational profit/ total assets and very low contributor ratio was working capital/Assets (Altman, 1968). According to Pastena and Ruland (1968), the bankruptcy was defined in the literature review in various ways. Among those one was in a condition of negative worth where the market value of assets was less than the total value of liabilities. And the other was that the firm was not in a condition to pay back its liabilities as it became due. This term could also be used in a legal condition under which the firms continued to operate under court protection. 1.2 Problem Statement In the corporate finance, the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was considered to be one of the most important issues. The main objective behind the study of the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was that this was the most important issue for the present firms to either file for the bankruptcy or not. The rationale of the study was to examine whether the financial ratios given in detail by Altman (1968) presented the detail regarding the factors of the firm which were helpful in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy in Pakistan. The capacity of study was to investigate the distinctive financial ratios which impacted the firms decisions to file for the bankruptcy or not and on the basis of firms financial ratios, the research study found the different significant ratios which were useful in determining the prediction of any of the organization. 1.3 Hypotheses The main problem of the different firms was to identify those financial factors or the most important ratios which could lead to the filing of bankruptcy or those factors which were useful in determining the prediction of the corporate firms. A central query in front of firms which wanted to file for bankruptcy was why the firms filed for bankruptcy or what financial factors helped out in taking decision to file for bankruptcy. Various financial factors or ratios impacted the decision regarding the filing for bankruptcy. These financial characteristics or the most important ratios were current ratio, debt ratio, net profit margin, assets to long term debt ratio, and growth rate. Many authors as Altman (1968) discussed these characteristics in research. The hypothesized relationship of these listed financial factors with bankruptcy was provided below: H1: There is a difference between the Current ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H2: There is a difference between the Debt ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H3: There is a difference between the Net Profit Margin ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H4: There is a difference between the Assets to long term debt ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H5: There is a difference between the Growth rate of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 1.4 Outline of the Study The research structured as follows. Chapter one based on the introduction of the thesis, which consists of the some introduction of the prediction of bankruptcy by different authors, the statement of problem, scope and objectives, hypothesis etc. Chapter two consists of literature review given by different authors, theories on prediction of bankruptcy and financial factors affecting the choice of decision to file for bankruptcy or not. Chapter three described methodology which is composed of justification of the selection of the variables utilized in analysis sample, the data, technique and hypothesis, also estimate model utilized in analysis. In chapter four, analyses of the results were there which were taken after the data processing. Chapter five contained the final results, conclusions and recommendations. References are included in chapter number six. CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW A number of researches have been carried on the prediction of bankruptcy; formal studies linked with failure of business were conducted in 1930s. A study conducted by Simth and winakor (1935) said that ratios of the failing firms were significantly change from the continuing firms. In addition to that an other study was related to the financial ratio of large size corporation that suffered in meeting fixed liability (Hickman 1958). Recent studies took potential ratios given in annual financial statements like profitability, solvency, and liquidity ratios considered as the most predictive indicator and these ratios were matched with failed and well worth firms for analysis. A group of financial and economic ratios were examined in the prediction of bankruptcy through multiple discriminant statistical technique, highest contributor ratios were profitability, operational profit/ total assets and very low contributor ratio was working capital/Assets (Altman, 1968). A study conducted by Sandin and Porporato (2007) on corporate bankruptcy prediction model applied to emerging economies. The aim of this study was to find the predictability of bankruptcy by using the financial ratios given in the financial statements and these financial statements were taken from the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. To test the hypothesis twenty two bankrupt and non bankrupt companies were examined by using the multiple discriminant analysis technique, resulted that financial ratios were very useful in predicting the bankruptcy. Actually this study was about the prediction model and classification of the distressed and failed companies in the Argentina. William Beaver (1996) conducted a study that Financial Ratios As Predictor of Failure, wherein ratios were tested for a specific purpose. The purpose was to forecast the failure. Since ratios were mostly examined for the prediction of failure. The aim of the study was to analyze the status quo that was depended on the financial statements made under the reporting standard and this study was conducted as a bench mark for further studies in bankruptcy area. Sample of data was selected on the basis of industry, firm size and period, Walworth companies should have taken from the same industry where from failed companies taken along with same firm size based on firm value and equal time duration then reliable result can be obtained said by Beaver (1996). This study pointed out and directed to the asset size and relationship among ratios, assets size and failure, study implicated that larger firms were more solvent than smaller firms, even if ratios were same. To examine the hypothesis, a paired analysis was used. According to Pastena and Ruland (1968), the bankruptcy was defined in the literature review in various ways. Among those one was in a condition of negative worth where the market value of assets was less than the total value of liabilities. And the other was that the firm was not in a condition to pay back its liabilities as it became due. This term could also be used in a legal condition under which the firms continued to operate under court protection. Merger and Bankruptcy Based on the literature review in the different research studies, it was found that the shareholders of the distressed firms were getting more benefit from mergers than from the bankruptcy. Thus, the investors kept the positive number of the firms stocks up as a consequence of the merger. Contrastingly, the stakeholders received nothing in case of the bankruptcy. Shrieves and Stevens (1979) managed to explain all of the possible reasons for preferring merger over bankruptcy and those principles included: (1) to avoid the bankruptcy legal and administrative costs, (2) possible loss of tax carry forwards of the loss firm incurred on liquidation, (3) the value of the going-concern in the merger was more than liquidation value if the firm bankruptcy progressed towards the liquidation, and (4) the bankruptcy created the bad effects on the revenues including sales and income due to the customer fears of inability contracts, give replacement parts, etc. Bulow and Shoven (1978) noticed based on the research that the investors have always been avoiding the bankruptcy and this tendency always benefitted the creditors as a whole and that theoretically, the bankruptcy occurred because of the disagreement between the concerned parties. This was treated in a literature that the merger was the best possible alternate of the bankruptcy with the assumption in the mind that it was more easy for the distressed firms to find a merger partner at some price as long as the net asset value was positive and this was also under the assumption of a well-functioning market for information. When the situation was aggravated toward a condition of less or negative net asset value, the possibility of merger was reduced. Hong (1983) made an empirical as well as theoretical model which distinguished among three different categories of financially upset firms and it was organized in three ways such as: firms which filed bankruptcy but reorganized successfully, firms which filed for bankruptcy but were liquidated ultimately, and also the firms which continued operations with out even filing for bankruptcy. Author further made a hypothesis that the intangible assets, the value of the firm as in a going concern and the value of the same firm in liquidation was different, were the main describing factor which affected the eventual outcome. The firms which had greater intangible assets were possibly having a sustainable economic growth and that growth allowed a firm to survive rather than be liquidated. LoPucki (1983) made an explanatory study of about 41 firms which filed the bankruptcy court of the Western District of Missouri. In this study, the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“successesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? were defined as the firms which have verified its various reorganization strategies that kept it on to survive for about three years after the date of petitioning the bankruptcy. Failures according to the author were those firms which had stopped operating functions before February 1983. LoPucki (1983) further could not try to make a method with discriminatory power, but in fact simply scrutinized the associations between the results of reorganization process and numerous individual variables. These individual variables included size, age, and type of the businesses, the survival of creditors opposition to the reorganization strategy, and physical geographic location. The relationships which were found during the research were: significantly higher success rate was associated with the manufacturing fi rms; more successful firms were only the larger firms; success was not significantly associated with the age of the firms; the target opposition of the creditors was mainly at the more successful firms; and lastly, the physical geographical location was not a significant describing variable. In short, only a finite amount of research was conducted on the topic of differentiating between failures and successes in bankruptcy, and outcomes have been open to doubts or inconclusive. The one published study conducted by the LoPucki (1983), scrutinized the first order correlations and could not struggle to build the model of classification. The other published research study conducted by Hong (1983), scrutinized the comparative importance of numerous individual variables and had not analyzed the classification authentication of the multivariate model. As it was already discussed in detail, this present study scrutinized the classification authentication of the multivariate model by using data from both analysis sample and a holdout sample 113 firms. Bordman, Bartley, and Ratliff (1981) noticed that firms went bankrupt only when its capital resources were not enough to pay back the obligations of the business. Thus it became the more important challenge for the new comers in the industry to maintain and establish such valuable resources and capabilities which could ultimately leaded to the production of positive cash flows before starting asset resources were exhausted (Levinthal, 1991). According to DAveni (1989), and Hambrick and DAveni (1988), both researches have noticed that most of the attention has been paid to the early failures and dramatic research has also been conducted in the literature. A macro view of the bankruptcy was given as a known strategy and an empirical examination of factors associated to successful reorganization (Moultan, and Thomas, 1993) and however, the structures of corporate governance were not incorporated in the analysis. An extensive data was available relating the intensity to which the officers and directors of the firm which was bankrupt were more possibly resigning or were being replaced (DAveni, 1990; Fizel Louie, 1990; Gilson, 1989). Several researchers used the multiple discriminant analysis MDA technique to develop a linear model to predict those firms which failed could be differentiated from the non-failed firms in UK (Taffler, 1977). This model resulted in an overall classification authentication for the year before the failure as comparative to three or two prior years of failure. The major contribution made by Taffler was the establishment of a Z-score model which was used for the prediction of company failures in the UK and furthermore, the author claimed of 100 percent predictive authentication in the model. In addition, in the consequent studies, Taffler (1982, 1983) discussed the pairing technique which was used in the prediction of corporate failure studies proved no more successful technique than any selection by the other tool or technique. Multiple Discriminant Analysis MDA models were dependable to certain intensity in the prediction of corporate failure. CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS 3.1 Method of Data Collection Data was selected from Karachi Stock Exchange KSE 100 Index as given by State Bank of Pakistan in publication Balance Sheet Analysis of Joint Stock Companies Listed on the KSE (2004-2009). The period of study covers six years, 2004-09. The opted sample size of 44 firms was taken from KSE 100 Index and all of the firms listed on KSE 100 Index were selected for the samples which were going to bankruptcy in the past and some were also the present functioning firms which were currently working; so, only 44 firms included in the sample period of 2004-09. The objective behind the inclusion of these selected firms in the sample was that the inclusion of bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms in the analysis made it easier to distinguish the critical financial ratios of these both firms in order to predict for corporate bankruptcy. The data availability was the major issue faced in this research study. The secondary data sources were adopted for the collection of the data during this research study. Both of the empirical and theoretical aspects regarding the prediction of corporate bankruptcy were analyzed in this research study. For the purpose of the collection of the secondary data, external data sources were used, such as the data was collected from State Bank of Pakistan, general business publications, newspapers and journal articles, annual reports, internet and books. The data required for this study was completely dependent on the published data sources, such as the published sources listed above. 3.2 Sample Size A sample of 44 firms from KSE 100 Index was selected and in addition, out of these firms 22 firms were bankrupt and the remaining 22 were not bankrupt which was taken as the holdout sample for the prediction of the corporate bankruptcy. Only firms were used in the samples which were either became bankrupt due to the impact of the some of the financial factors or the ratios or the firms which were in operations during the research study was conducted and these firms were listed on the KSE 100 Index form 2004-2009. The impact of the different financial factors or ratios, which were listed in the previous chapters, on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was analyzed on all of the firms selected as the sample. 3.3 Research Model Developed There are various financial factors or the ratios of the firms which affected the prediction of the corporate bankruptcy of the firms. This research study analyzed the impact of different factors or ratios already listed in the previous chapters on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The model developed was a binary logistic model and its specifications are provided below: Liquidity = a0 + a1Firm Size + a2DEBT + a3LTD + a4LSALES + a5OI/S + a6OI/TA+ a7IGP/TA+ a8Market to Book Ratio + ц where: Liquidity = the sum of cash and marketable securities divided by total assets Firm Size = natural log of the book value of total assets DEBT = the ratio of shorter period plus longer period debt to total assets LTD = the ratio of longer period debt to total assets LSALES = natural log of the annual sales OI/S = the ratio of operating income to sales OI/TA = the ratio of operating income to total sales IGP/TA = the inventory plus gross fixed assets to total assets ratio à Ã¢â‚¬Å¾ = the error term 3.4 Statistical Technique Binary Logistic Regression Analysis technique was used for this research study to examine the impact of the distinctive financial characteristics or the financial ratios of the firms on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy of the selected firms; Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the examination of the secondary data. Binary Logistic Regression Analysis technique was used for the purpose of prediction of of corporate bankruptcy or the prediction of the firms decisions to file for bankruptcy. The selected technique was used to study the impact of the different independent variables (financial factors as listed in the previous chapters) on the dependent variable i.e., prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The binary logistic regression analysis was selected for this study. It showed the intensity of the impact on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy during year 2004-2009 on the basis of several independent variables. CHAPTER 4: RESULTS The sample of 44 firms from the Karachi Stock Exchange KSE 100 Index was taken; Binary Logistic Regression Analysis technique was used for this research study. Research examined the distinctive financial characteristics or financial ratios of firms which filed for the bankruptcy. The selected technique was used to study the impact of the different independent variables (financial factors as listed in the previous chapters) on the dependent variable i.e., the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the analysis and examination of data. 4.1 Findings and Interpretation of the results Initially, the binary logistic regression technique was applied on the data collected using SPSS. Now, it was a nice time to proceed with the analysis of the results because the data was collected and ready to be examined. The interpretation and analysis is presented in the next sections of this research study. Case Processing Summary Unweighted Casesa N Percent Selected Cases Included in Analysis 192 91.4 Missing Cases 18 8.6 Total 210 100.0 Unselected Cases 0 .0 Total 210 100.0 This table explains the total population in the data file that is the 210 observations or the cases for the analysis of the bankruptcy prediction. This table further elaborates that the there were also some of the cases missing in the data because of the issue of data availability and some of the cases were the figures of zero. Dependent Variable Encoding Original Value Internal Value Bankrupt 0 Non-Bankrupt 1 The above table shows that there are only two variables in the dependent variable of bankruptcy that are the being bankrupt or non-bankrupt. Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 234.707a .144 .192 This table elaborates the predictability of the complete model of the logistic regression which meant that to what extent the model predict the variation in the predicted group of bankruptcy. According to Cox Snell, the total predictors jointly explained variation in the groups of bankruptcy was 14.4%. While according to Nagelkirki, the all independent variable explained the group prediction of about 19.2%. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step Chi-square df Sig. 1 32.715 8 .000 This table checks the overall model fit which means that the model is at its best in predicting the group variation from non-bankrupt to bankrupt. The hypothesis of the above table is that the test model is fit. The hypothesis is rejected because the sig value is less than .05 which concluded that the test model was not fit in this case of predicting the group variation. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Banckruptcy Percentage Correct Bankrupt Non-Bankrupt Step 1 Banckruptcy Bankrupt 76 29 72.4 Non-Bankrupt 43 44 50.6 Overall Percentage 62.5 The classification table is the most important table in case of the logistic regression because this table explained the correct identification of the cases correctly identified. The percentage of correctly identified cases is 62.5% which is also commonly known as the hit ratio which means that to what extent the numbers of cases were correctly identified. Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 95% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a DA -1.219 .510 5.725 1 .017 .295 .109 .802 AtoLTD -.002 .001 1.583 1 .208 .998 .996 1.001 CR .938 .348 7.242 1 .007 2.554 1.290 5.056 NPM .037 .073 .262 1 .609 1.038 .899 1.198 SG .161 .232 .482 1 .488 1.175 .745 1.852 Constant .066 .579 .013 1 .910 1.068 This is the final most important table in the logistic regression because this is the only table which shows the role of different predictors in significantly explaining the role in the prediction of group variations. Those important significant variables were only two that were DA, and CR because the sig value of only these variables were less than .05. 4.2 Hypotheses Assessment Summary The hypothesis of the study was distinctive financial ratios have significant impact on the non firms decision to file for bankruptcy. These financial characteristics were current ratio (CR), debt ratio (DA), net profit margin (NPM), assets to long term debt ratio, and growth rate. In this study each of the financial characteristics or financial ratios of firms was tested and concluded the results. TABLE 4.4 : Hypotheses Assessment Summary S.NO. Hypotheses ÃŽÂ ²       SIG. RESULT H1 There is a difference between the Current ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 0.938 0.007 Accepted H2 There is a difference between the Debt Ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. -1.219 0.017 Accepted H3 There is a difference between the Net Profit Margin Ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 0.037 0.609 Rejected H4 There is a difference between the Assets to long term debt ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. -0.002 0.208 Rejected H5 There is a difference between the Growth rate of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 0.161 0.488 Rejected CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSION, IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH 5.1 Conclusion It was concluded based on the results of this research study that current ratio and debt ratio were only the independent variables which were showing significance in Pakistani market and these variables were highly significant in playing the vital role explaining the variation in the dependent variable of the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and the remaining independent variables could not explain the variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. These results were not matching with the study conducted by Altman (1968). These results were varying because in various countries, there was difference in environments and circumstances and firms usually made decision accordingly. 5.2 Discussions Current ratio played a significant role in defining the variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and this was also the case with the research study conducted by Altman (1968) because in his study the firm size was also playing a significant role. The variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was not explained by the net profit margin ratio while it was significant in the study done by Altman (1968). The assets to long term debt ratio, and growth rate were not significantly explaining the variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and study analyzed by Altman (1968), concluded the different results with some addition. 5.3 Implications and Recommendations This research was limited to the various firms listed on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan only. The data taken from 44 firms which were took through various sectors of the KSE 100 Index for the year 2004-09 which were previously bankrupt and which were currently operating. It suggested that such type of study should be carried out in other countries of Asia as well, as to have comprehensive idea about the choices of the firms decision to file for bankruptcy. Moreover, it also suggested that other factors except ones examined in this study should be researched as to have perfect idea about the selection of the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Besides that, this study can also be replicated in other developing countries. 5.4 Future Research This study helped various investors, management and other research conductors in analyzing and observing the behavior of firms regarding their decisions to file for the bankruptcy. Research students who want to work further on the prediction of bankruptcy can be benefited by this research study. Further more, the firms will become advantageous from this study because the study clarifies the distinctive financial characteristics or the financial ratios of different firms which significantly explain the variations in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Study on the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy Study on the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy CHAPTER 1: A number of researches have been carried on the prediction of bankruptcy; formal studies linked with failure of business were conducted in 1930s. A study conducted by Simth and Winakor (1935) said that ratios of the failing firms were significantly changed from the continuing firms. In addition to that another study was related to the financial ratio of large size corporation that suffered in meeting fixed liability (Hickman 1958). Recent studies took potential ratios given in annual financial statements like profitability, solvency, and liquidity ratios considered as the most predictive indicator and these ratios were matched with failed and well worth firms for analysis. A group of financial and economic ratios were examined in the prediction of bankruptcy through multiple discriminant statistical technique, highest contributor ratios were profitability, operational profit/ total assets and very low contributor ratio was working capital/Assets (Altman, 1968). According to Pastena and Ruland (1968), the bankruptcy was defined in the literature review in various ways. Among those one was in a condition of negative worth where the market value of assets was less than the total value of liabilities. And the other was that the firm was not in a condition to pay back its liabilities as it became due. This term could also be used in a legal condition under which the firms continued to operate under court protection. 1.2 Problem Statement In the corporate finance, the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was considered to be one of the most important issues. The main objective behind the study of the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was that this was the most important issue for the present firms to either file for the bankruptcy or not. The rationale of the study was to examine whether the financial ratios given in detail by Altman (1968) presented the detail regarding the factors of the firm which were helpful in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy in Pakistan. The capacity of study was to investigate the distinctive financial ratios which impacted the firms decisions to file for the bankruptcy or not and on the basis of firms financial ratios, the research study found the different significant ratios which were useful in determining the prediction of any of the organization. 1.3 Hypotheses The main problem of the different firms was to identify those financial factors or the most important ratios which could lead to the filing of bankruptcy or those factors which were useful in determining the prediction of the corporate firms. A central query in front of firms which wanted to file for bankruptcy was why the firms filed for bankruptcy or what financial factors helped out in taking decision to file for bankruptcy. Various financial factors or ratios impacted the decision regarding the filing for bankruptcy. These financial characteristics or the most important ratios were current ratio, debt ratio, net profit margin, assets to long term debt ratio, and growth rate. Many authors as Altman (1968) discussed these characteristics in research. The hypothesized relationship of these listed financial factors with bankruptcy was provided below: H1: There is a difference between the Current ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H2: There is a difference between the Debt ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H3: There is a difference between the Net Profit Margin ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H4: There is a difference between the Assets to long term debt ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. H5: There is a difference between the Growth rate of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 1.4 Outline of the Study The research structured as follows. Chapter one based on the introduction of the thesis, which consists of the some introduction of the prediction of bankruptcy by different authors, the statement of problem, scope and objectives, hypothesis etc. Chapter two consists of literature review given by different authors, theories on prediction of bankruptcy and financial factors affecting the choice of decision to file for bankruptcy or not. Chapter three described methodology which is composed of justification of the selection of the variables utilized in analysis sample, the data, technique and hypothesis, also estimate model utilized in analysis. In chapter four, analyses of the results were there which were taken after the data processing. Chapter five contained the final results, conclusions and recommendations. References are included in chapter number six. CHAPTER 2: LITERATURE REVIEW A number of researches have been carried on the prediction of bankruptcy; formal studies linked with failure of business were conducted in 1930s. A study conducted by Simth and winakor (1935) said that ratios of the failing firms were significantly change from the continuing firms. In addition to that an other study was related to the financial ratio of large size corporation that suffered in meeting fixed liability (Hickman 1958). Recent studies took potential ratios given in annual financial statements like profitability, solvency, and liquidity ratios considered as the most predictive indicator and these ratios were matched with failed and well worth firms for analysis. A group of financial and economic ratios were examined in the prediction of bankruptcy through multiple discriminant statistical technique, highest contributor ratios were profitability, operational profit/ total assets and very low contributor ratio was working capital/Assets (Altman, 1968). A study conducted by Sandin and Porporato (2007) on corporate bankruptcy prediction model applied to emerging economies. The aim of this study was to find the predictability of bankruptcy by using the financial ratios given in the financial statements and these financial statements were taken from the Buenos Aires Stock Exchange. To test the hypothesis twenty two bankrupt and non bankrupt companies were examined by using the multiple discriminant analysis technique, resulted that financial ratios were very useful in predicting the bankruptcy. Actually this study was about the prediction model and classification of the distressed and failed companies in the Argentina. William Beaver (1996) conducted a study that Financial Ratios As Predictor of Failure, wherein ratios were tested for a specific purpose. The purpose was to forecast the failure. Since ratios were mostly examined for the prediction of failure. The aim of the study was to analyze the status quo that was depended on the financial statements made under the reporting standard and this study was conducted as a bench mark for further studies in bankruptcy area. Sample of data was selected on the basis of industry, firm size and period, Walworth companies should have taken from the same industry where from failed companies taken along with same firm size based on firm value and equal time duration then reliable result can be obtained said by Beaver (1996). This study pointed out and directed to the asset size and relationship among ratios, assets size and failure, study implicated that larger firms were more solvent than smaller firms, even if ratios were same. To examine the hypothesis, a paired analysis was used. According to Pastena and Ruland (1968), the bankruptcy was defined in the literature review in various ways. Among those one was in a condition of negative worth where the market value of assets was less than the total value of liabilities. And the other was that the firm was not in a condition to pay back its liabilities as it became due. This term could also be used in a legal condition under which the firms continued to operate under court protection. Merger and Bankruptcy Based on the literature review in the different research studies, it was found that the shareholders of the distressed firms were getting more benefit from mergers than from the bankruptcy. Thus, the investors kept the positive number of the firms stocks up as a consequence of the merger. Contrastingly, the stakeholders received nothing in case of the bankruptcy. Shrieves and Stevens (1979) managed to explain all of the possible reasons for preferring merger over bankruptcy and those principles included: (1) to avoid the bankruptcy legal and administrative costs, (2) possible loss of tax carry forwards of the loss firm incurred on liquidation, (3) the value of the going-concern in the merger was more than liquidation value if the firm bankruptcy progressed towards the liquidation, and (4) the bankruptcy created the bad effects on the revenues including sales and income due to the customer fears of inability contracts, give replacement parts, etc. Bulow and Shoven (1978) noticed based on the research that the investors have always been avoiding the bankruptcy and this tendency always benefitted the creditors as a whole and that theoretically, the bankruptcy occurred because of the disagreement between the concerned parties. This was treated in a literature that the merger was the best possible alternate of the bankruptcy with the assumption in the mind that it was more easy for the distressed firms to find a merger partner at some price as long as the net asset value was positive and this was also under the assumption of a well-functioning market for information. When the situation was aggravated toward a condition of less or negative net asset value, the possibility of merger was reduced. Hong (1983) made an empirical as well as theoretical model which distinguished among three different categories of financially upset firms and it was organized in three ways such as: firms which filed bankruptcy but reorganized successfully, firms which filed for bankruptcy but were liquidated ultimately, and also the firms which continued operations with out even filing for bankruptcy. Author further made a hypothesis that the intangible assets, the value of the firm as in a going concern and the value of the same firm in liquidation was different, were the main describing factor which affected the eventual outcome. The firms which had greater intangible assets were possibly having a sustainable economic growth and that growth allowed a firm to survive rather than be liquidated. LoPucki (1983) made an explanatory study of about 41 firms which filed the bankruptcy court of the Western District of Missouri. In this study, the à ¢Ã¢â€š ¬Ã…“successesà ¢Ã¢â€š ¬? were defined as the firms which have verified its various reorganization strategies that kept it on to survive for about three years after the date of petitioning the bankruptcy. Failures according to the author were those firms which had stopped operating functions before February 1983. LoPucki (1983) further could not try to make a method with discriminatory power, but in fact simply scrutinized the associations between the results of reorganization process and numerous individual variables. These individual variables included size, age, and type of the businesses, the survival of creditors opposition to the reorganization strategy, and physical geographic location. The relationships which were found during the research were: significantly higher success rate was associated with the manufacturing fi rms; more successful firms were only the larger firms; success was not significantly associated with the age of the firms; the target opposition of the creditors was mainly at the more successful firms; and lastly, the physical geographical location was not a significant describing variable. In short, only a finite amount of research was conducted on the topic of differentiating between failures and successes in bankruptcy, and outcomes have been open to doubts or inconclusive. The one published study conducted by the LoPucki (1983), scrutinized the first order correlations and could not struggle to build the model of classification. The other published research study conducted by Hong (1983), scrutinized the comparative importance of numerous individual variables and had not analyzed the classification authentication of the multivariate model. As it was already discussed in detail, this present study scrutinized the classification authentication of the multivariate model by using data from both analysis sample and a holdout sample 113 firms. Bordman, Bartley, and Ratliff (1981) noticed that firms went bankrupt only when its capital resources were not enough to pay back the obligations of the business. Thus it became the more important challenge for the new comers in the industry to maintain and establish such valuable resources and capabilities which could ultimately leaded to the production of positive cash flows before starting asset resources were exhausted (Levinthal, 1991). According to DAveni (1989), and Hambrick and DAveni (1988), both researches have noticed that most of the attention has been paid to the early failures and dramatic research has also been conducted in the literature. A macro view of the bankruptcy was given as a known strategy and an empirical examination of factors associated to successful reorganization (Moultan, and Thomas, 1993) and however, the structures of corporate governance were not incorporated in the analysis. An extensive data was available relating the intensity to which the officers and directors of the firm which was bankrupt were more possibly resigning or were being replaced (DAveni, 1990; Fizel Louie, 1990; Gilson, 1989). Several researchers used the multiple discriminant analysis MDA technique to develop a linear model to predict those firms which failed could be differentiated from the non-failed firms in UK (Taffler, 1977). This model resulted in an overall classification authentication for the year before the failure as comparative to three or two prior years of failure. The major contribution made by Taffler was the establishment of a Z-score model which was used for the prediction of company failures in the UK and furthermore, the author claimed of 100 percent predictive authentication in the model. In addition, in the consequent studies, Taffler (1982, 1983) discussed the pairing technique which was used in the prediction of corporate failure studies proved no more successful technique than any selection by the other tool or technique. Multiple Discriminant Analysis MDA models were dependable to certain intensity in the prediction of corporate failure. CHAPTER 3: RESEARCH METHODS 3.1 Method of Data Collection Data was selected from Karachi Stock Exchange KSE 100 Index as given by State Bank of Pakistan in publication Balance Sheet Analysis of Joint Stock Companies Listed on the KSE (2004-2009). The period of study covers six years, 2004-09. The opted sample size of 44 firms was taken from KSE 100 Index and all of the firms listed on KSE 100 Index were selected for the samples which were going to bankruptcy in the past and some were also the present functioning firms which were currently working; so, only 44 firms included in the sample period of 2004-09. The objective behind the inclusion of these selected firms in the sample was that the inclusion of bankrupt and non-bankrupt firms in the analysis made it easier to distinguish the critical financial ratios of these both firms in order to predict for corporate bankruptcy. The data availability was the major issue faced in this research study. The secondary data sources were adopted for the collection of the data during this research study. Both of the empirical and theoretical aspects regarding the prediction of corporate bankruptcy were analyzed in this research study. For the purpose of the collection of the secondary data, external data sources were used, such as the data was collected from State Bank of Pakistan, general business publications, newspapers and journal articles, annual reports, internet and books. The data required for this study was completely dependent on the published data sources, such as the published sources listed above. 3.2 Sample Size A sample of 44 firms from KSE 100 Index was selected and in addition, out of these firms 22 firms were bankrupt and the remaining 22 were not bankrupt which was taken as the holdout sample for the prediction of the corporate bankruptcy. Only firms were used in the samples which were either became bankrupt due to the impact of the some of the financial factors or the ratios or the firms which were in operations during the research study was conducted and these firms were listed on the KSE 100 Index form 2004-2009. The impact of the different financial factors or ratios, which were listed in the previous chapters, on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was analyzed on all of the firms selected as the sample. 3.3 Research Model Developed There are various financial factors or the ratios of the firms which affected the prediction of the corporate bankruptcy of the firms. This research study analyzed the impact of different factors or ratios already listed in the previous chapters on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The model developed was a binary logistic model and its specifications are provided below: Liquidity = a0 + a1Firm Size + a2DEBT + a3LTD + a4LSALES + a5OI/S + a6OI/TA+ a7IGP/TA+ a8Market to Book Ratio + ц where: Liquidity = the sum of cash and marketable securities divided by total assets Firm Size = natural log of the book value of total assets DEBT = the ratio of shorter period plus longer period debt to total assets LTD = the ratio of longer period debt to total assets LSALES = natural log of the annual sales OI/S = the ratio of operating income to sales OI/TA = the ratio of operating income to total sales IGP/TA = the inventory plus gross fixed assets to total assets ratio à Ã¢â‚¬Å¾ = the error term 3.4 Statistical Technique Binary Logistic Regression Analysis technique was used for this research study to examine the impact of the distinctive financial characteristics or the financial ratios of the firms on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy of the selected firms; Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the examination of the secondary data. Binary Logistic Regression Analysis technique was used for the purpose of prediction of of corporate bankruptcy or the prediction of the firms decisions to file for bankruptcy. The selected technique was used to study the impact of the different independent variables (financial factors as listed in the previous chapters) on the dependent variable i.e., prediction of corporate bankruptcy. The binary logistic regression analysis was selected for this study. It showed the intensity of the impact on the prediction of corporate bankruptcy during year 2004-2009 on the basis of several independent variables. CHAPTER 4: RESULTS The sample of 44 firms from the Karachi Stock Exchange KSE 100 Index was taken; Binary Logistic Regression Analysis technique was used for this research study. Research examined the distinctive financial characteristics or financial ratios of firms which filed for the bankruptcy. The selected technique was used to study the impact of the different independent variables (financial factors as listed in the previous chapters) on the dependent variable i.e., the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the analysis and examination of data. 4.1 Findings and Interpretation of the results Initially, the binary logistic regression technique was applied on the data collected using SPSS. Now, it was a nice time to proceed with the analysis of the results because the data was collected and ready to be examined. The interpretation and analysis is presented in the next sections of this research study. Case Processing Summary Unweighted Casesa N Percent Selected Cases Included in Analysis 192 91.4 Missing Cases 18 8.6 Total 210 100.0 Unselected Cases 0 .0 Total 210 100.0 This table explains the total population in the data file that is the 210 observations or the cases for the analysis of the bankruptcy prediction. This table further elaborates that the there were also some of the cases missing in the data because of the issue of data availability and some of the cases were the figures of zero. Dependent Variable Encoding Original Value Internal Value Bankrupt 0 Non-Bankrupt 1 The above table shows that there are only two variables in the dependent variable of bankruptcy that are the being bankrupt or non-bankrupt. Model Summary Step -2 Log likelihood Cox Snell R Square Nagelkerke R Square 1 234.707a .144 .192 This table elaborates the predictability of the complete model of the logistic regression which meant that to what extent the model predict the variation in the predicted group of bankruptcy. According to Cox Snell, the total predictors jointly explained variation in the groups of bankruptcy was 14.4%. While according to Nagelkirki, the all independent variable explained the group prediction of about 19.2%. Hosmer and Lemeshow Test Step Chi-square df Sig. 1 32.715 8 .000 This table checks the overall model fit which means that the model is at its best in predicting the group variation from non-bankrupt to bankrupt. The hypothesis of the above table is that the test model is fit. The hypothesis is rejected because the sig value is less than .05 which concluded that the test model was not fit in this case of predicting the group variation. Classification Tablea Observed Predicted Banckruptcy Percentage Correct Bankrupt Non-Bankrupt Step 1 Banckruptcy Bankrupt 76 29 72.4 Non-Bankrupt 43 44 50.6 Overall Percentage 62.5 The classification table is the most important table in case of the logistic regression because this table explained the correct identification of the cases correctly identified. The percentage of correctly identified cases is 62.5% which is also commonly known as the hit ratio which means that to what extent the numbers of cases were correctly identified. Variables in the Equation B S.E. Wald df Sig. Exp(B) 95% C.I.for EXP(B) Lower Upper Step 1a DA -1.219 .510 5.725 1 .017 .295 .109 .802 AtoLTD -.002 .001 1.583 1 .208 .998 .996 1.001 CR .938 .348 7.242 1 .007 2.554 1.290 5.056 NPM .037 .073 .262 1 .609 1.038 .899 1.198 SG .161 .232 .482 1 .488 1.175 .745 1.852 Constant .066 .579 .013 1 .910 1.068 This is the final most important table in the logistic regression because this is the only table which shows the role of different predictors in significantly explaining the role in the prediction of group variations. Those important significant variables were only two that were DA, and CR because the sig value of only these variables were less than .05. 4.2 Hypotheses Assessment Summary The hypothesis of the study was distinctive financial ratios have significant impact on the non firms decision to file for bankruptcy. These financial characteristics were current ratio (CR), debt ratio (DA), net profit margin (NPM), assets to long term debt ratio, and growth rate. In this study each of the financial characteristics or financial ratios of firms was tested and concluded the results. TABLE 4.4 : Hypotheses Assessment Summary S.NO. Hypotheses ÃŽÂ ²       SIG. RESULT H1 There is a difference between the Current ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 0.938 0.007 Accepted H2 There is a difference between the Debt Ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. -1.219 0.017 Accepted H3 There is a difference between the Net Profit Margin Ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 0.037 0.609 Rejected H4 There is a difference between the Assets to long term debt ratio of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. -0.002 0.208 Rejected H5 There is a difference between the Growth rate of bankrupted companies and non bankrupted companies. 0.161 0.488 Rejected CHAPTER 5: DISCUSSIONS, CONCLUSION, IMPLICATIONS AND FUTURE RESEARCH 5.1 Conclusion It was concluded based on the results of this research study that current ratio and debt ratio were only the independent variables which were showing significance in Pakistani market and these variables were highly significant in playing the vital role explaining the variation in the dependent variable of the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and the remaining independent variables could not explain the variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. These results were not matching with the study conducted by Altman (1968). These results were varying because in various countries, there was difference in environments and circumstances and firms usually made decision accordingly. 5.2 Discussions Current ratio played a significant role in defining the variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and this was also the case with the research study conducted by Altman (1968) because in his study the firm size was also playing a significant role. The variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy was not explained by the net profit margin ratio while it was significant in the study done by Altman (1968). The assets to long term debt ratio, and growth rate were not significantly explaining the variation in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy and study analyzed by Altman (1968), concluded the different results with some addition. 5.3 Implications and Recommendations This research was limited to the various firms listed on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan only. The data taken from 44 firms which were took through various sectors of the KSE 100 Index for the year 2004-09 which were previously bankrupt and which were currently operating. It suggested that such type of study should be carried out in other countries of Asia as well, as to have comprehensive idea about the choices of the firms decision to file for bankruptcy. Moreover, it also suggested that other factors except ones examined in this study should be researched as to have perfect idea about the selection of the prediction of corporate bankruptcy. Besides that, this study can also be replicated in other developing countries. 5.4 Future Research This study helped various investors, management and other research conductors in analyzing and observing the behavior of firms regarding their decisions to file for the bankruptcy. Research students who want to work further on the prediction of bankruptcy can be benefited by this research study. Further more, the firms will become advantageous from this study because the study clarifies the distinctive financial characteristics or the financial ratios of different firms which significantly explain the variations in the prediction of corporate bankruptcy.

Fields Of Psychology :: essays research papers

Psychology (Ph.D. Code: PSY) Fields of study: Clinical, cognitive, and social psychology; neuroscience and behavior; visual perception. The program offers doctoral study for students who intend to become psychological scientists or scientist-practitioners. Students who plan to terminate their studies with the master's degree are not encouraged to apply. Admission is not limited to students with undergraduate backgrounds in psychology. Theory, method, and research experience in a number of areas of psychological science are emphasized. Course requirements are organized into the three broad areas of cognitive science, neuroscience, and clinical science. Students have intensive research training with individual faculty in the areas of clinical psychology, cognition, functional imaging, perception, psychobiology, sensory neurophysiology, and social psychology. Students in clinical psychology are also provided with extensive training in clinical skills. Major practicum facilities in which students receive supervised clinical and/or applied research training are found in the Vanderbilt Medical Center and other institutions in Nashville. The department is in a building which offers generous laboratory space for individual and group experiments with human subjects, and facilities for animal experimentation. It has a computerized classroom and connections to the campus mainframe computers. Computerized equipment for neuroanatomy, neurophysiology, and psychophysics is also available and is especially suited for work on sensory systems. Human subjects are available through a University research pool, Vanderbilt clinics, and the local school system. In addition, the department has an animal facility providing a wide variety of species, including fish, rodents, and primates. Faculty: 22 Graduate enrollment: In residence 37; average in entering class 5-8 Address: 111 21st Avenue South; 37240 Phone: (615) 322-2874 E-mail: patricia.m.burns@vanderbilt.edu [Psychology] Psychology and Human Development (M.S., Ph.D. Code: GPSY) Fields of study: Clinical, cognitive studies, community, developmental, and quantitative psychology. The Clinical program focuses primarily on issues facing children and families. Faculty members study the development of aggressive behavior and depression in children and adolescents; psychological factors accompanying developmental disability and chronic physical disease; the role of communities in mental health; cognitive intervention for learning and behavioral problems; and the delivery of mental health services to children, youth, and families. The goal of the clinical program is to educate psychologists as scientists and practitioners so that they may pursue a variety of career paths. The Cognitive Studies program focuses on laboratory- and field-based research into cognitive processes as they occur in formal and informal learning situations. Areas of research emphasis include cognition, instruction, and technology; cognitive development;

Bless Me, Ultima Essay -- essays research papers

The loss of innocence in life is an inevitable process. Losing one’s innocence comes merely by growing up. The philosophy of the loss of one’s innocence is a definite theme in the book Bless Me, Ultima. This theme is displayed throughout the entire story and plot of the novel. There is loss of innocence all around the main character, Tony, with his brothers and the people he meets. Tony also loses a great deal of his own innocence to the harsh realities of the world which marks his transition from a boy to a man.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  The theme of the loss of innocence covers the entire essence of the book. There are many cases in the story where people had lost their innocence of life and it was lost to them forever. Tony’s brothers are of such a case. They had gone to war to fight for their country and explore the world. But as they yearned and sought the outside and how it was, they lost their innocence in the process. Being in war they saw death and destruction which soiled their once virgin eyes. Although they gained knowledge and experience they were becoming no longer young and gay, but were becoming mature and knowledgeable. Growing at such a fast pace was a regretful process, that even Andrew advised Tony to not grow too fast but that would not happen as we know.   Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Another example of loss of innocence in the book would be Tony’s friends. The gang seems to be fairly innocent enough but they ...

Mercedes :: essays research papers

The 1996 Mercedes E320 sustained crash damage to the passenger side front. After we set up and measured the vehicle on the caro-liner frame rack, we found there to be extensive panel, sub frame, and suspension damage. Including consequential interior damage, IE; Driver/passenger airbags deployed, dash panel assembly, and passenger airbags deployed, dash panel assembly, and passenger side mirror. After a complete damage assessment report, we then began disassembly of all damaged panels and assemblies. After the disassembly we decided which parts would be salvaged off of our 1997 Mercedes E320, which parts would be purchased new or those which would need to be straightened and refinished. Once the damaged panels were removed we were able to attach the 10-ton hydraulic ram assembly to the frame rack and began the frame straightening repairs. Our initial pulls were to fix the sway problem of the passenger side front sub frame. This was accomplished by wrapping a chain around the misaligned sub frame, pulling in a straight, level manner opposite the direction of the misalignment. We did several pulls in this manner, stress relieving, before and during, with a ball peen hammer before repositioning for the next pull until brought back into specification. We then positioned our 10-ton ram to the passenger front for repair of the frame rail mash and sag situation sustained on impact. We wrapped the chain around crash impact bar and used it as the hook up point for our pulls. Pulling and stress receiving until it also was within specifications. Our final pull was to the suspension passenger side A-arm. We simply attached our chains to the A-arm and pulled it back into positio n. At this point, we could now begin sectioning and panel removal. This was first done by deciding which panels were to be removed and which were to be repaired. Then all of the spot welds that needed to be removed were marked with a paint marker, so as to only to remove the necessary welds. Some spot welds were located underneath seam sealer and or insulation. We then removed the material with a hand torch to burn the seam sealer, then a steel bristled brush to scratch off the burnt material. We then center drilled all of the marked spot welds with an 1/8† drill bit, followed up by a 5/16† spot weld removal bit to drill out the spot welds along all of the panels to be removed.

Bordean Hill Cottages Essay

WHAT IS THIS LETTER ABOUT? I am writing this letter to apply for the position of a Senior Prefect at Eggar’s School as I believe I would be an ideal representative for the school and a good role model to those younger than me. INTRO – APPLYING APPLICATION I am genuinely very happy at Eggar’s School and it would be a privilege to be part of the Senior Prefect team underpinning the good work that is done by the staff. I see this position as a central part of the school’s foundations, traditions, and effective communication between students, teachers and the local community. Being a senior prefect is one of the top roles a student can have at a school. They work with the teachers to create a better learning environment and provide opportunities for others to succeed. THE ROLE – WHY IS THE ROLE IMPORTANT? HOW WE VALUE PREFECTS? – GENERAL Personally, I believe that having Senior prefects are important as they act as a leading demonstration of the school’s ethos to the ‘outside world’, not only to the parents of current and prospective pupils but the people in the community surrounding our school. Senior prefects act as leaders; they do this with energy and enthusiasm and with a willingness to put others before themselves. Given their status as leaders and role models, Senior Prefects are a visible and active presence around the school. WHY I WANT TO BE A SENIOR PREFECT What school will get out of it – I believe that if I was to become Senior Prefect, I would be able to share my knowledge and advice about the school to suggest improvements from an experienced pupil’s perspective. I would also be able to provide on-going practical support such as parents evenings, sports days, helping out Eggar’s newspapers etc. My knowledge about the school and how it runs from a pupils perspective (experience gained over the last four years) On-going practical supports (eg. Events, parents evenings, sports days, newsletters, teacher etc†¦) Representing the school Being part of the student voice – giving ideas I have gained from being a senior prefect and applying them towards What I want to get out with it   I think as a person I would also widely benefit from becoming Senior Prefect. I would develop my personal skills and qualities including leadership, responsibility and a sense of service which would help me later in life when I have future careers. Being able to demonstrate high expectations of myself and others is very important to me and something I have always tried to maintain over my many years at Eggar’s School. Managing the extra responsibility with professionalism, integrity, sensitivity and good humour is something I wish to gain if I was to become senior prefect. Nevertheless, I believe that becoming a Senior prefect will push me further to continue my commitment to academic success as this has always been very important to me. Furthermore, to receive recognition from Senior staff and being identified to the student body as someone who has, through my actions and efforts, aspired to exemplify the expectations of Eggar’s school would make me very proud. Looking ahead, I know that the experience of being a prefect will bring added value to my further education and career prospects as it will provide positive evidence for collage and job references. Training from the school/staff particularly in relationship to the leadership role To extend CV Provide positive evidence for collage and job references Develop my ability to use my initiative Benefit from the many opportunities to develop personal skills and qualities, including leadership, responsibility, sense of service and trust Being able to demonstrate high expectations of myself and others Make significant contributions to the wider life of the school To have continued commitment to academic success To be able to manage the extra responsibility with professionalism, integrity, sensitivity and good humour. Be self-motivated, proactive and a reliable team member Receive recognition from Senior staff and being identified to the student body as someone who has, through my actions and efforts, aspired to exemplify the expectations of Eggar’s school. STRENGTHS/WEEKNESSES WHY I AM THE RIGHT PERSON FOR THE JOB (GIVE EXAMLES) PERSONALITY AND SKILLS I think I am the right person to take on a role of senior prefect as I am a trustworthy, reliable and responsible person. On numerous occasions I have devoted time to come into school and participate in school fetes, parent’s evenings and showing parents round the school. This is not something that I feel I have to do, but something that I put myself forward for as I enjoy being part of the Eggar’s community. Furthermore, I have proved to be a good ambassador and role model for the school as in year 8 I put myself forward for the role of helping out at the OAP Party which takes place once a year. During this experience I am also very willing to take on extra responsibility. An example of this is when I volunteered to participate in Eggar’s E-learning group. This is where I had the opportunity to help primary school children develop their ICT skills. In the process, my team were successful in winning the competition for the task that was set. I have had a number of opportunities to develop my communication skills. An example of this when I was asked to participate in the BBC School Report in year 8 with around 20 other students. I found this very useful to help develop my team building skills and I will be able to use this skill if I got the role of senior prefect to help motivate and encourage the prefect team. In terms of academic success, I have always given my full commitment and been very self-disciplined. Which has given me very credible results. I was included in the Eggar’s 21 Club which gave me a real sense of pride. I felt that all my hard work had paid off and I would like to, as a Senior Prefect, be able  to encourage other students to work towards this accolade. I have always realised that maintaining a consistently high attendance record (98.3%) will result in a higher level of academic achievement. My participation in many sports days has given me invaluable teamwork and leadership skills, as I have represented my house in a variety of events. This is valuable experience for the position of Senior prefect, as I feel I will be able to carry out a wide variety of tasks required in this demanding position. UNIFORM Not only is it essential that I represent the school by acting very responsibly, both in my manner and academically, it is equally important that I take a pride in my appearance and dress appropriately. WHAT IS MY VISON/ WHAT I CAN BRING TO THE JOB I feel that I can bring a lot to the role of senior prefect as I am very self-disciplined and this quality would help manage my prefect duties with my study commitments and outside school activities. SUMMARY Thank you for considering my application and taking the time out to read it. Yours sincerely, Eleanor Howard

Non-Hodgkin’s Lymphoma Disease

Non- Hodgkin’s Lymphoma or NHLs are a heterogenous group of cancers that originate from the neoplastic growth of lymphoid tissue. As in CLL, the neoplastic cells are thought to arise from a single clone of lymphocytes; however, in NHL, the cells may vary morphologically. Most NHLs involve malignant B lymphocytes; only 5% involve T lymphocytes. In contrast to Hodgkin’s disease, the lymphoid tissues involved are largely infiltrated with malignant cells. The spread of these malignant lymphoid cells occurs unpredictably, and true localized disease is uncommon. Lymph nodes from multiple sites may be infiltrated, as may sites outside the lymphoid system (extra nodal tissue). The incidence of NHL has increased dramatically over the past decade; it is now the fourth most common type of cancer diagnosed in the United States and the fifth most common cause of cancer death.   The incidence increases with each decade of life; the average age at diagnosis is 50 to 60 years old. Although no common etiologic factor has been identified, there is an increased incidence of NHL in people with immunodeficiencies or autoimmune disorders, viral infections including Epstein- Barr virus and HIV, or exposure to pesticides, solvents, dyes, helicobacter pylori, human T cell leukemia, and hepatitis C virus. Researchers also say that obesity could be one of the risk factors of having Non- Hodgkin’s lymphoma and those whose occupation involves chemicals and herbicides.   Prognosis varies greatly  among the various types of NHL. Long term survival more than 10 years is commonly achieved in low- grade, localized lymphomas. Even with aggressive disease forms, cure is possible in at least one third of patients who receive aggressive treatments. Symptoms are highly variable, reflecting the diverse nature of these diseases. With early- stage disease, or with the types that are considered more indolent, symptoms may be virtually absent or very minor, and the illness typically is not diagnosed until it progresses to a later stage, when the patient is more symptomatic. At these stages III or IV, lymphadenopathy is noticeable. One third of patients have â€Å"B† symptoms like recurrent fever, drenching night sweats, and unintentional weight loss of 10% or more. Non- Hodgkin’s lymphoma usually begins with the presence of one or more swollen lymph nodes on the side of the neck, collarbone, and under the arms. The most common sites for lymphadenopathy are the cervical, supraclavicular, and mediastinal nodes, involvement of the iliac or inguinal nodes or spleen is much less common. A mediastinal mass maybe seen on the chest x- ray; occasionally, the mass is large enough to compress the trachea and cause dyspnea.   Pruritus is common; it can be extremely distressing, and the cause is unknown. Approximately 20% of patients experience brief but severe pain after drinking alcohol. All organs are vulnerable to invasion of NHL. The symptoms result from compression of organs by the tumor, such as cough and pulmonary effusion, jaundice from hepatic involvement or bile duct obstruction, abdominal pain from  Splenomegaly or retroperitoneal adenopathy, or bone pain which is from skeletal involvement. Herpes zoster infections are common. A cluster of constitutional symptoms has important prognostic implications. A mild anemia is the most common hematologic finding. The WBC count may be elevated or decreased. The platelet count is suppressing hematopoiesis. The erythrocyte sedimentation rate or ESR and the serum copper level are used by some clinicians to assess disease activity. The actual diagnosis of NHL is categorized into a highly complex classification system based on histopathology, immunophenotyping, and cytogenetic analyses of the malignant cells. The specific histopathologic type of the disease has important prognostic implications. Treatment also varies and is based on these features. Indolent or less aggressive types tend to have small cells and are distributed in a follicular pattern. Aggressive types tend to have large or immature cells distributed through the nodes in a diffuse pattern. Staging, also an important factor is typically based on data obtained from CT scans, bone marrow biopsies, and occasionally cerebrospinal fluid analysis. The stage is based on the site of disease and its spread to other sites. For example, in stage 1 disease is highly localized and may respond well to localize therapy like radiation therapy. In contrast, stage IV disease is detected in at least one extra nodal site. Although low- grade lymphomas may not require treatment until the disease progresses to a later stage, historically they have also been relatively unresponsive to treatment in that most therapeutic modalities did not improve overall survival. More aggressive types of NHL like Lymphoblastic lymphoma and Burkitt’s lymphoma require prompt initiation of chemotherapy; however, these types tend to be more responsive to treatments. Treatment is based on the actual classification of disease, the stage of disease, prior treatment, and the patient’s ability to tolerate therapy. If the disease is not an aggressive form and is truly localized, radiation alone may be the treatment of choice. With aggressive types of NHL, aggressive combinations of chemotherapeutic agents are given even in early stages. More intermediate radiation therapy for stage 1 and II disease. The biologic agent interferon has been approved for the treatment of follicular low- grade lymphomas, and an antibody to CD20, rituximab (Rituxan), has been effective in achieving partial responses in patients with recurrent low- grade lymphoma. Studies of this agent in combination with conventional chemotherapy have demonstrated an improvement in survival as well. Central nervous system involvement is also common with some aggressive forms of NHL; in this situation, cranial radiation or intrathecal chemotherapy is used in addition to systemic chemotherapy. Treatment after relapse is controversial. Much is known about the long term effects of chemotherapy and radiation therapy, primarily from the large numbers of people who were cured of by these treatments. The various complications are immune dysfunction, herpes infections, pneumococcal sepsis, acute myeloid leukemia or AML, Myelodysplastic syndrome or MDS, solid tumors, thyroid cancer, thymic hyperplasia, hypothyroidism, Pericarditis, cardiomyopathy, pneumonotis, avascular necrosis, growth retardation, infertility, impotence and dental caries. Aside from radiation therapy and chemotherapy, there are also stem cell transplantation, biologic therapy and radio immunotherapy. To diagnose Non- Hodgkin’s lymphoma with a patient, a nurse or a health care professional should do physical examination and anamnesis or a family history of the patient which could present the possibilities that he or she could have NHL. Most of the care for patients with Non- Hodgkin’s disease is performed in the outpatient setting, unless complications occur like infection, respiratory compromise due to mediastinal mass. For patients who require treatment, chemotherapy and radiation therapy are most commonly used. Chemotherapy cause systemic side effects like myelosuppression, nausea, hair loss, risk for infection, whereas the side effects from radiation therapy are specific to the area being irradiated. For example, patients receiving abdominal radiation therapy may experience nausea and diarrhea but not hair loss. Regardless of the type of treatment, all patients may experience fatigue. The risk of infection is significant in patients, not only from treatment related myelosuppression but also from the defective immune response that results from the disease itself. Patients need to be taught to minimize the risk for infection, to recognize signs of possible infection, and to contact the health care professional should such signs develops. Many lymphomas can be cured with current treatments. However, as survival rates increase, the incidence of second malignancies, particularly AML or MDs, also increases. Therefore, survivors should be screened regularly for the development of second malignancies. The nurse should instruct the patient to stay away from strenuous activities. He should always have the time to get adequate rest. And the nurse should encourage the patient to take medications religiously, increase fluid intake. The patient should be instructed to keep himself from any injuries and falls. The nurse should raise side rails if the patient it admitted in a hospital. The family should also be instructed to just keep on showing some support towards the patient. Hhould always rie and falls. he patient to take medications religiously, increase fluid intake. the   uld always have the time to get adequate rest. an trenous . g NOn- could have NHL. amination and anamnesis or a family histor Having Non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma is not that good. Patients are sometimes emotionally disturbed especially if they are working and they are the ones supporting their respective families. They would also think of the payments in the electricity, hospital bills and medication. Whenever patients asked something about his/ her condition, the health care professional should be able to answer it to help the patient alleviate worrying. The patient and his/ her family should be given support groups for counseling and for them to be able to express their emotions towards the current situation they are in.h care professional should be able to answer it to ent. ng whenever swollen lymphnodes are References: 1 Cavalli, F. (1998). Rare syndromes in Hodgkin’s and Non- Hodgkin’s. Annals of Oncology. 9 (Suppl. 5), S109- S113. 2. Coiffer, B. (2002). Rituximab in the treatment of diffuse large B- cell lymphomas. Seminars in Oncology, 29 (1, Suppl. 2), 30- 35. 3. Porth, C. M. (2002). Pathophysiology: Concepts of altered health states (6th Ed.).  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚  Ã‚   Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. 4. Skeel, R. (Ed.). (1999). Handbook of Cancer Chemotherapy (5th Ed.). Philadelphia: Lippincott Williams & Wilkins 5. Smeltzer, Suzanne, and Brenda G. Bare. Medical- Surgical Nursing. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins, 2004.                                 

The road to polyamory

Will same-sex matrimony extend marriage's stabilizing effects to homosexuals? Will gay marriage undermine family life? A lot is riding on the answers to these questions. But the media's reflexive labeling of doubts about gay marriage as homophobia has made it almost impossible to debate the social effects of this reform. Now with the Supreme Court's ringing affirmation of sexual liberty in Lawrence v. Texas, that debate is unavoidable. Among the likeliest effects of gay marriage is to take us down a slippery slope to legalized polygamy and â€Å"polyamory† (group marriage).Marriage will be transformed into a variety of relationship contracts, linking two, three, or more individuals (however weakly and temporarily) in every conceivable combination of male and female. A scare scenario? Hardly. The bottom of this slope is visible from where we stand. Advocacy of legalized polygamy is growing. A network of grass-roots organizations seeking legal recognition for group marriage alre ady exists. The cause of legalized group marriage is championed by a powerful faction of family law specialists.Influential legal bodies in both the United States and Canada have presented radical programs of marital reform. Some of these quasi-governmental proposals go so far as to suggest the abolition of marriage. The ideas behind this movement have already achieved surprising influence with a prominent American politician. None of this is well known. Both the media and public spokesmen for the gay marriage movement treat the issue as an unproblematic advance for civil rights.True, a small number of relatively conservative gay spokesmen do consider the social effects of gay matrimony, insisting that they will be beneficent, that homosexual unions will become more stable. Yet another faction of gay rights advocates actually favors gay marriage as a step toward the abolition of marriage itself. This group agrees that there is a slippery slope, and wants to hasten the slide down. To consider what comes after gay marriage is not to say that gay marriage itself poses no danger to the institution of marriage.Quite apart from the likelihood that it will usher in legalized polygamy and polyamory, gay marriage will almost certainly weaken the belief that monogamy lies at the heart of marriage. But to see why this is so, we will first need to reconnoiter the slippery slope. Promoting polygamy DURING THE 1996 congressional debate on the Defense of Marriage Act, which affirmed the ability of the states and the federal government to withhold recognition from same-sex marriages, gay marriage advocates were put on the defensive by the polygamy question.If gays had a right to marry, why not polygamists? Andrew Sullivan, one of gay marriage's most intelligent defenders, labeled the question fear-mongering–akin to the discredited belief that interracial marriage would lead to birth defects. â€Å"To the best of my knowledge,† said Sullivan, â€Å"there is no p olygamists' rights organization poised to exploit same-sex marriage and return the republic to polygamous abandon. † Actually, there are now many such organizations. And their strategy–even their existence–owes much to the movement for gay marriage.Scoffing at the polygamy prospect as ludicrous has been the strategy of choice for gay marriage advocates. In 2000, following Vermont's enactment of civil unions, Matt Coles, director of the American Civil Liberties Union's Lesbian and Gay Rights Project, said, â€Å"I think the idea that there is some kind of slippery slope [to polygamy or group marriage] is silly. † As proof, Coles said that America had legalized interracial marriage, while also forcing Utah to ban polygamy before admission to the union.That dichotomy, said Coles, shows that Americans are capable of distinguishing between better and worse proposals for reforming marriage. Are we? When Tom Green was put on trial in Utah for polygamy in 2001, it played like a dress rehearsal for the coming movement to legalize polygamy. True, Green was convicted for violating what he called Utah's â€Å"don't ask, don't tell† policy on polygamy. Pointedly refusing to â€Å"hide in the closet,† he touted polygamy on the Sally Jessy Raphael, Queen Latifah, Geraldo Rivera, and Jerry Springer shows, and on â€Å"Dateline NBC† and â€Å"48 Hours.† But the Green trial was not just a cable spectacle. It brought out a surprising number of mainstream defenses of polygamy. And most of the defenders went to bat for polygamy by drawing direct comparisons to gay marriage. Writing in the Village Voice, gay leftist Richard Goldstein equated the drive for state-sanctioned polygamy with the movement for gay marriage. The political reluctance of gays to embrace polygamists was understandable, said Goldstein, â€Å"but our fates are entwined in fundamental ways. â€Å"Libertarian Jacob Sullum defended polygamy, along with all ot her consensual domestic arrangements, in the Washington Times. Syndicated liberal columnist Ellen Goodman took up the cause of polygamy with a direct comparison to gay marriage. Steve Chapman, a member of the Chicago Tribune editorial board, defended polygamy in the Tribune and in Slate. The New York Times published a Week in Review article juxtaposing photos of Tom Green's family with sociobiological arguments about the naturalness of polygamy and promiscuity.The ACLU's Matt Coles may have derided the idea of a slippery slope from gay marriage to polygamy, but the ACLU itself stepped in to help Tom Green during his trial and declared its support for the repeal of all â€Å"laws prohibiting or penalizing the practice of plural marriage. † There is of course a difference between repealing such laws and formal state recognition of polygamous marriages. Neither the ACLU nor, say, Ellen Goodman has directly advocated formal state recognition. Yet they give us no reason to suppose that, when the time is ripe, they will not do so.Stephen Clark, the legal director of the Utah ACLU, has said, â€Å"Talking to Utah's polygamists is like talking to gays and lesbians who really want the right to live their lives. † All this was in 2001, well before the prospect that legal gay marriage might create the cultural conditions for state-sanctioned polygamy. Can anyone doubt that greater public support will be forthcoming once gay marriage has become a reality? Surely the ACLU will lead the charge. Why is state-sanctioned polygamy a problem?The deep reason is that it erodes the ethos of monogamous marriage. Despite the divorce revolution, Americans still take it for granted that marriage means monogamy. The ideal of fidelity may be breached in practice, yet adultery is clearly understood as a transgression against marriage. Legal polygamy would jeopardize that understanding, and that is why polygamy has historically been treated in the West as an offense against s ociety itself. In most non-Western cultures, marriage is not a union of freely choosing individuals, but an alliance of family groups.The emotional relationship between husband and wife is attenuated and subordinated to the economic and political interests of extended kin. But in our world of freely choosing individuals, extended families fall away, and love and companionship are the only surviving principles on which families can be built. From Thomas Aquinas through Richard Posner, almost every serious observer has granted the incompatibility between polygamy and Western companionate marriage. Where polygamy works, it does so because the husband and his wives are emotionally distant.Even then, jealousy is a constant danger, averted only by strict rules of seniority or parity in the husband's economic support of his wives. Polygamy is more about those resources than about sex. Yet in many polygamous societies, even though only 10 or 15 percent of men may actually have multiple wive s, there is a widely held belief that men need multiple women. The result is that polygamists are often promiscuous–just not with their own wives. Anthropologist Philip Kilbride reports a Nigerian survey in which, among urban male polygamists, 44 percent said their most recent sexual partners were women other than their wives.For monogamous, married Nigerian men in urban areas, that figure rose to 67 percent. Even though polygamous marriage is less about sex than security, societies that permit polygamy tend to reject the idea of marital fidelity–for everyone, polygamists included. Mormon polygamy has always been a complicated and evolving combination of Western mores and classic polygamous patterns. Like Western companionate marriage, Mormon polygamy condemns extramarital sex. Yet historically, like its non-Western counterparts, it de-emphasized romantic love.Even so, jealousy was always a problem. One study puts the rate of 19th-century polygamous divorce at triple t he rate for monogamous families. Unlike their forebears, contemporary Mormon polygamists try to combine polygamy with companionate marriage–and have a very tough time of it. We have no definitive figures, but divorce is frequent. Irwin Altman and Joseph Ginat, who've written the most detailed account of today's breakaway Mormon polygamist sects, highlight the special stresses put on families trying to combine modern notions of romantic love with polygamy.Strict religious rules of parity among wives make the effort to create a hybrid traditionalist/modern version of Mormon polygamy at least plausible, if very stressful. But polygamy let loose in modern secular America would destroy our understanding of marital fidelity, while putting nothing viable in its place. And postmodern polygamy is a lot closer than you think. Polyamory AMERICA'S NEW, souped-up version of polygamy is called â€Å"polyamory.† Polyamorists trace their descent from the anti-monogamy movements of the sixties and seventies–everything from hippie communes, to the support groups that grew up around Robert Rimmer's 1966 novel â€Å"The Harrad Experiment,† to the cult of Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh. Polyamorists proselytize for â€Å"responsible non-monogamy†Ã¢â‚¬â€œopen, loving, and stable sexual relationships among more than two people. The modern polyamory movement took off in the mid-nineties–partly because of the growth of the Internet (with its confidentiality), but also in parallel to, and inspired by, the rising gay marriage movement.Unlike classic polygamy, which features one man and several women, polyamory comprises a bewildering variety of sexual combinations. There are triads of one woman and two men; heterosexual group marriages; groups in which some or all members are bisexual; lesbian groups, and so forth. (For details, see Deborah Anapol's â€Å"Polyamory: The New Love Without Limits,† one of the movement's authoritative guides, or Goog le the word polyamory. ) Supposedly, polyamory is not a synonym for promiscuity. In practice, though, there is a continuum between polyamory and â€Å"swinging.† Swinging couples dally with multiple sexual partners while intentionally avoiding emotional entanglements. Polyamorists, in contrast, try to establish stable emotional ties among a sexually connected group. Although the subcultures of swinging and polyamory are recognizably different, many individuals move freely between them. And since polyamorous group marriages can be sexually closed or open, it's often tough to draw a line between polyamory and swinging. Here, then, is the modern American version of Nigeria's extramarital polygamous promiscuity.Once the principles of monogamous companionate marriage are breached, even for supposedly stable and committed sexual groups, the slide toward full-fledged promiscuity is difficult to halt. Polyamorists are enthusiastic proponents of same-sex marriage. Obviously, any attem pt to restrict marriage to a single man and woman would prevent the legalization of polyamory. After passage of the Defense of Marriage Act in 1996, an article appeared in Loving More, the flagship magazine of the polyamory movement, calling for the creation of a polyamorist rights movement modeled on the movement for gay rights.The piece was published under the pen name Joy Singer, identified as the graduate of a â€Å"top ten law school† and a political organizer and public official in California for the previous two decades. Taking a leaf from the gay marriage movement, Singer suggested starting small. A campaign for hospital visitation rights for polyamorous spouses would be the way to begin. Full marriage and adoption rights would come later. Again using the gay marriage movement as a model, Singer called for careful selection of acceptable public spokesmen (i. e. , people from longstanding poly families with children).Singer even published a speech by Iowa state legisla tor Ed Fallon on behalf of gay marriage, arguing that the goal would be to get a congressman to give exactly the same speech as Fallon, but substituting the word â€Å"poly† for â€Å"gay† throughout. Try telling polyamorists that the link between gay marriage and group marriage is a mirage. The flexible, egalitarian, and altogether postmodern polyamorists are more likely to influence the larger society than Mormon polygamists. The polyamorists go after monogamy in a way that resonates with America's secular, post-sixties culture.Yet the fundamental drawback is the same for Mormons and polyamorists alike. Polyamory websites are filled with chatter about jealousy, the problem that will not go away. Inevitably, group marriages based on modern principles of companionate love, without religious rules and restraints, are unstable. Like the short-lived hippie communes, group marriages will be broken on the contradiction between companionate love and group solidarity. And chi ldren will pay the price. The harms of state-sanctioned polyamorous marriage would extend well beyond the polyamorists themselves.Once monogamy is defined out of marriage, it will be next to impossible to educate a new generation in what it takes to keep companionate marriage intact. State-sanctioned polyamory would spell the effective end of marriage. And that is precisely what polyamory's new–and surprisingly influential–defenders are aiming for. The family law radicals STATE-SANCTIONED polyamory is now the cutting-edge issue among scholars of family law. The preeminent school of thought in academic family law has its origins in the arguments of radical gay activists who once opposed same-sex marriage.In the early nineties, radicals like longtime National Gay and Lesbian Task Force policy director Paula Ettelbrick spoke out against making legal marriage a priority for the gay rights movement. Marriage, Ettelbrick reminded her fellow activists, â€Å"has long been th e focus of radical feminist revulsion. † Encouraging gays to marry, said Ettelbrick, would only force gay â€Å"assimilation† to American norms, when the real object of the gay rights movement ought to be getting Americans to accept gay difference.â€Å"Being queer,† said Ettelbrick, â€Å"means pushing the parameters of sex and family, and in the process transforming the very fabric of society. † Promoting polyamory is the ideal way to â€Å"radically reorder society's view of the family,† and Ettelbrick, who has since formally signed on as a supporter of gay marriage (and is frequently quoted by the press), is now part of a movement that hopes to use gay marriage as an opening to press for state-sanctioned polyamory. Ettelbrick teaches law at the University of Michigan, New York University, Barnard, and Columbia. She has a lot of company.